AS the election campaign gets in full swing, many candidates wish they had a crystal ball to show them the future.

But while no-one knows yet who thousands of people in the Clacton constituency will vote for next month, one man is already making his prediction.

Joe Twyman, YouGov’s head of political and social research, said the signs were already showing who would be taking home the prize in Clacton.

Douglas Carswell stunned the political elite last year when the Clacton MP swapped the Conservatives for Ukip. He walked away with his old constituency crown after triggering a by election, taking 60 per cent of the vote.

Mr Twyman predicted Mr Carswell would not achieve the same amount of voters this time around, but he added: “Demographically, Clacton completely favours Ukip.

“The party will pull in votes across the country but, realistically, will only get three to five seats because of the way our voting system works.

“Mr Carswell will almost certainly be one of them because he is incredibly popular.

“If you look at Clacton town, there has been an influx of families from the East End of London over the generations.

“They are white, working class voters who are the prime target for Ukip.”

Mr Twyman (pictured left) added: “You put that together with Jaywick, an extremely deprived area, and you get people who feel they have been left behind with the changes which have taken place nationally.

“They look at the established political parties and say ‘what are they doing for me?’.

“It’s not that the voters believe in Ukip policies. It’s that it is sending amessage to the established parties about what they are doing for people.

“Levels of immigration in Clacton are lower than in many other parts of the country.

“But for voters, it’s not about that. It’s about them how the world is changing and they don’t like it.”